NUMB3RS - Season 3 - 'Contenders' - Choosing Contenders

Season 3 Episode: "Contenders" • Weighted Averages & Z-Scores

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Step 1 of 6

Understanding the Metrics

Before creating a rating system, we must understand our two metrics:

  1. Strength of Schedule (SOS): The average of all opponents' winning percentages from the previous season. An SOS of 0.500 means opponents won exactly half their games. A lower SOS means a team faced historically weaker opponents.
  2. Power Value (PV): A rating combining offensive yards, defensive yards, and points. For PV, a lower value indicates a stronger, more efficient team.

Adding these two raw metrics (R=SOS+PVR = \text{SOS} + \text{PV}) is ineffective because they are measured on completely different scales. PV values (ranging from 11 to 27) would completely dominate the SOS values (which are decimal percentages around 0.4 to 0.5). We need a method to normalize or 'equalize' our variables.

Adjust Weighted Parameters

Strength of Schedule Weight (u)1
Power Value Weight (v)1

Dynamic NFC Rankings (Lowest Rating Wins!)

#1Seattle
SOS: 0.480 | PV: 11.0
1.607
#2Dallas Cowboys
SOS: 0.500 | PV: 16.0
1.907
#3Chicago Bears
SOS: 0.445 | PV: 18.0
1.910
#4New Orleans
SOS: 0.510 | PV: 22.0
2.203
#5San Francisco
SOS: 0.520 | PV: 25.0
2.529
Analytical Insight: Try setting SOS Weight to 12 and Power Value Weight to 1. Watch how Chicago's historically low SOS (0.445) immediately biases the ranking, vaulting them past Seattle to #1!

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