The Binomial Probability Distribution
Analyze experiments with two possible outcomes—success or failure—and calculate the probability of specific results over multiple trials.
Identifying a Binomial Experiment
Not every probability experiment is binomial. To use the formulas in this section, an experiment must meet four specific criteria.
The 4 Conditions
- 1Fixed Trials: The experiment is performed a fixed number of times ().
- 2Independence: The trials are independent; the outcome of one does not affect the others.
- 3Two Outcomes: Each trial has two mutually exclusive outcomes: Success or Failure.
- 4Constant Probability: The probability of success () is the same for each trial.
Why "Success"?
"Success" just means the outcome we are tracking. Determining a "defective" part can be a "success" in statistical terms!
Binomial Probability Formula
LogicLens: Deconstructing the Formula
This counts the number of ways to arrange successes among trials. (e.g., getting 2 heads in 3 flips can happen as HHT, HTH, or THH).
This calculates the probability of one specific arrangement of successes and failures.
Mean & Standard Deviation
For binomial distributions, calculating the mean and standard deviation is much simpler than the general discrete method.
The expected number of successes.
The spread/variation of successes.
Distribution Shape
The shape of a binomial distribution depends on and . As increases, the distribution becomes more bell-shaped (Normal Approximation), especially when .
Common Pitfalls
Real-World Application
Quality Control
Manufacturers use the binomial distribution to accept or reject batches. If a batch has 5% defect rate, what is the probability that in a sample of 20, we find more than 2 defective items?
Medical Trials
If a new drug is 70% effective, determining the probability that it works for at least 8 out of 10 patients helps set expectation benchmarks.
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